2015 Voting Intentions: A Tie for First Place between Conservatives and the NDP

When looking at voting intentions as of July 2015, 32% of decided voters would support the NDP, 32% would vote Conservative and 25% would support the Liberals. Compared to our May figures, this represents a major shift in voting intentions as the NDP soars with a + 9, while the Liberals dive with a – 9. Is this the result of the election of an NDP government in Alberta, the constant negative ads of the Conservatives against Justin Trudeau, the threat of a possible recession in Canada hurting the incumbent, or a combination of these and other causes? While the Conservative vote remains stable, largely due to a strong showing in Ontario, the constant barrage of negative advertising against Justin Trudeau maybe benefiting Thomas Mulcair more than it helps Stephen Harper.

In Ontario, the Conservatives (38%) are in first place, as Liberals (29%) and the NDP (27%) battle it out for second place. In Quebec, the NDP surges ahead at 37% with the Conservatives a distant second at 23% and the Bloc in third at 19%. With 18%, the Liberals are free-falling in La Belle Province. Out West, the NDP is the story. Tom Mulcair’s NDP (36%) is now in first place in BC, with the Conservatives trailing at 27%. In Alberta, the Conservative support drops to 43%, as the NDP offers a strong showing at 32%). In the Prairies, all three major parties are in heated battle (30% for the NDP, 35% for the Conservatives and 32% for the Liberals). In the Altantic provinces, the NDP and Liberals are tied at 35%, while the Conservatives are down into the teens (18%).

This new poll is a first for Leger. This is the first time a national Leger poll shows Thomas Mulcair come in first place when Canadians are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. At 27%, he is only two points in front of Stephen Harper, while Justin Trudeau drops to 16%.

For the details on the poll’s methodology and further details please refer to the pdf document by using the link provided.

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