2015 Voting Intentions: A Tie for First Place between Conservatives and the NDP

When looking at voting intentions as of July 2015, 32% of decided voters would support the NDP, 32% would vote Conservative and 25% would support the Liberals. Compared to our May figures, this represents a major shift in voting intentions as the NDP soars with a + 9, while the Liberals dive with a – 9. Is this the result of the election of an NDP government in Alberta, the constant negative ads of the Conservatives against Justin Trudeau, the threat of a possible recession in Canada hurting the incumbent, or a combination of these and other causes? While the Conservative vote remains stable, largely due to a strong showing in Ontario, the constant barrage of negative advertising against Justin Trudeau maybe benefiting Thomas Mulcair more than it helps Stephen Harper.

In Ontario, the Conservatives (38%) are in first place, as Liberals (29%) and the NDP (27%) battle it out for second place. In Quebec, the NDP surges ahead at 37% with the Conservatives a distant second at 23% and the Bloc in third at 19%. With 18%, the Liberals are free-falling in La Belle Province. Out West, the NDP is the story. Tom Mulcair’s NDP (36%) is now in first place in BC, with the Conservatives trailing at 27%. In Alberta, the Conservative support drops to 43%, as the NDP offers a strong showing at 32%). In the Prairies, all three major parties are in heated battle (30% for the NDP, 35% for the Conservatives and 32% for the Liberals). In the Altantic provinces, the NDP and Liberals are tied at 35%, while the Conservatives are down into the teens (18%).

This new poll is a first for Leger. This is the first time a national Leger poll shows Thomas Mulcair come in first place when Canadians are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. At 27%, he is only two points in front of Stephen Harper, while Justin Trudeau drops to 16%.

For the details on the poll’s methodology and further details please refer to the pdf document by using the link provided.

Please click here for the full report with all the detailed results. 

Christian Bourque

Christian Bourque, Executive Vice-President and Partner at Leger, has over 20 years of experience in market and public opinion research. Christian also sits on the national board of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of Canada (MRIA), where he also acts as a lecturer for some of the association’s training courses. Christian has also frequently served as an expert witness in Court where survey evidence was presented.

Sébastien Dallaire

Sébastien Dallaire is Vice President, Public Affairs, at Léger. Sébastien possesses more than 15 years of experience in public opinion research and is a highly-respected public opinion analyst with provincial and national media outlets. Sébastien also has many years of university teaching experience in research methods and is a key methodologist for Léger’s major clients. He has won numerous distinguished research awards and distinctions and has published academic research articles in both official languages.

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