From October 18 to 21, 2024, we surveyed Canadians about their perceptions of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Some of the key highlights of our survey about the Canadian Perceptions of U.S. Election include…
- Seven out of ten Canadians (70%) are interested in the current U.S. election, while 30% are not. Liberal voters (85%) and respondents aged 55 and older (78%) are more likely to be interested. Interest does not equate to watching the results on election night, however. More than one-third of Canadians (38%) plan to watch U.S. election night coverage, 42% will not watch but will follow the results afterward, and 15% have no interest in watching the coverage.
- If Canadians could vote in the U.S. election, 64% would vote for Kamala Harris, 21% for Donald Trump, and 15% are unsure. Canadians aged 55 and older (77%), Quebecers (72%), and women (70%) are more likely to support Harris, while respondents aged 18 to 34 (29%) and Conservative voters (45%) are more likely to support Trump. Conservative voters are split with 42% saying they would support Harris.
- Sixty-two percent (62%) of Canadians believe that a Kamala Harris victory would be the best outcome for Canada.
- Canadians believe Harris would perform better than Trump on all issues surveyed, particularly on climate change (68% vs. 14% for Trump), trade relations with Canada (64% vs. 18%), immigration (58% vs. 28%), national security (58% vs. 28%), current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East (56% vs. 26%), and the U.S. economy (54% vs. 30%).
- Two out of three Canadians (65%) are worried about potential violence and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S. election. This concern is higher among Canadians aged 55 and older (74%), women (69%), Liberal voters (81%), and NDP voters (82%)
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from October 18 to September 21, 2024, with 1,562 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±2.48%, (19 times out of 20) for the Canadian sample.
