Federal Politics: January 2025

January 29, 2025

From January 24 to 26, 2025, we surveyed Canadians on federal politics.

Highlights include…

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is currently leading by 18 points, ahead of the Liberal Party. If a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25% would vote for the Liberal Party. The NDP trail at 16%. The Liberal Party has seen a significant increase of 4 percentage points since the last measurement, while the Conservatives have experienced a significant decrease of 4 points.

Among potential successors to Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney emerges as the clear frontrunner, garnering 34% support. Chrystia Freeland follows with 14%, while Karina Gould trails with 4%. Carney’s appeal is particularly strong among Liberal voters, with 57% backing his leadership.

Mark Carney is also seen as the best suited to manage the relationship with the Trump administration, with 35% support. Chrystia Freeland follows with 18%, and Karina Gould trails at 5%. Once again, Liberal voters are more likely to believe that Carney is the best person to handle this, with 55% support.

Among Canadians who do not plan to vote for the Liberal Party, one-quarter (25%) indicates they might reconsider when the Party elects a new leader, while 60% remain unlikely to change their minds, and 14% are unsure. Green Party voters (47%) and NDP voters (44%) are more likely to vote for the Liberal Party under new leadership.

Regarding Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs, 64% of Canadians believe that any response should ensure no province, including their own, suffers significantly more than others, while 23% think it’s acceptable if their province suffers more as long as it’s in Canada’s best interest. Quebecers (69%) are more likely to believe that the response should not disproportionately impact any province. Albertans (14%) are significantly less likely to agree that their province can suffer more if it’s for the greater good of Canada.

Methodology

The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from January 24 to 26, 2025, with a representative sample of 1,527 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel.

The data was statistically weighted according to 2021 Canadian Census figures. ​

A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,527 would have a margin of error of +/- 2.51%, 19 times out of 20.

Related Posts

Economic Confidence: January 2025

Leger regularly conducts an economic confidence survey that measures Canadians’ current and future confidence in the Canadian economy and household finances. It also explores Canadians’ perspectives on topical economic subjects. Download our overall economic...

Ontario Provincial Politics: January 2025

From January 17 to 19, 2025, we surveyed Ontarians on their provincial politics.Highlights from our survey include... Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (46%) is currently leading by 24 points, ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal party (22%), Marit...

Sikh Separation

From December 13 to 16, 2024, we surveyed Canadians on the Sikh separatist movement.Some of the key highlights ​of our survey about the Sikh separatist movement include…​Awareness and Concerns​ Over half of Canadians (53%) are aware of accusations that the Indian...

Federal Politics: Liberal Party Leadership

From January 10 to 13, 2025, we surveyed Canadians on who should replace Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, which party Canadians would vote for, and if Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.Some of the key highlights of our survey include​…...

Get the latest in your inbox

Stay up to date on cutting-edge research, news and more.