{"id":14167,"date":"2020-01-10T22:41:17","date_gmt":"2020-01-10T22:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leger360.com\/pause-cafe-les-sondages-sont-ils-representatifs-des-elections\/"},"modified":"2020-01-10T22:41:17","modified_gmt":"2020-01-10T22:41:17","slug":"pause-cafe-les-sondages-sont-ils-representatifs-des-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leger360.com\/fr\/pause-cafe-les-sondages-sont-ils-representatifs-des-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"PAUSE CAF\u00c9 &#8211; Les sondages sont-ils repr\u00e9sentatifs des \u00e9lections?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5>Notre s\u00e9rie Pause-caf\u00e9 avec L\u00e9ger permet de d\u00e9mystifier les \u00e9tudes de march\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 nos experts qui r\u00e9pondent bri\u00e8vement \u00e0 certaines questions cl\u00e9s du monde des sondages. Si vous souhaitez obtenir plus d&rsquo;informations sur les services de recherche que nous offrons, cliquez sur le bouton \u00ab Contactez-nous \u00bb au bas de cette page afin d\u2019initier la conversation avec l\u2019un des membres de notre \u00e9quipe.<\/h5>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fleger360%2Fvideos%2F871501673621321%2F&#038;show_text=0&#038;width=325\" width=\"325\" height=\"325\" style=\"border:none;overflow:hidden\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>On utilise souvent la question : \u00ab Est-ce que les sondages ont pr\u00e9dit le r\u00e9sultat de l\u2019\u00e9lection?\u00a0\u00bb. En fait, il s\u2019agit d\u2019une mauvaise question. Difficile de demander \u00e0 un sondage qui mesure le pass\u00e9 de pr\u00e9dire l\u2019avenir!\u00a0 En fait, on exige des sondages un niveau de performance qu\u2019ils ne peuvent pas livrer.\u00a0 Cela \u00e9tant dit, dans la tr\u00e8s grande majorit\u00e9 des \u00e9lections r\u00e9centes au Canada, aux \u00c9tats-Unis, en France ou en Grande-Bretagne, les sondages se sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement rapproch\u00e9s (dans la marge d\u2019erreur) des r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections.<\/p>\n<p>Mais voici pourquoi la question de d\u00e9part n\u2019est pas la bonne :<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>les derniers sondages publi\u00e9s la fin de semaine avant l\u2019\u00e9lection ont mesur\u00e9 les intentions de vote de la semaine pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Ainsi, les changements d\u2019opinion ou de pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence des \u00e9lecteurs dans les derniers jours de la campagne ne sont pas mesur\u00e9s;<\/li>\n<li>le sondage interroge la population en entier (un \u00e9chantillon de celle-ci), alors que seulement une partie de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat va voter.\u00a0 Par exemple, aux \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales, environ 60% des Canadiens iront voter.\u00a0 Ceci rend la \u00ab pr\u00e9diction\u00a0\u00bb plus difficile, ne sachant pas vraiment qui de nos r\u00e9pondants iront exprimer leur intention de vote dans la bo\u00eete de scrutin;<\/li>\n<li>les \u00e9lecteurs ont aussi chang\u00e9. Il y a \u00e0 peine 20 ans, les \u00e9lecteurs \u00e9taient assez loyaux \u00e0 leur parti politique, et ce souvent m\u00eame d\u2019une g\u00e9n\u00e9ration \u00e0 une autre. Aujourd\u2019hui, les \u00e9lecteurs changent rapidement d\u2019all\u00e9geance, soit par vote strat\u00e9gique ou \u00e0 cause d\u2019une \u00ab gaffe\u00a0\u00bb d\u2019un candidat, ou encore pour voter \u00ab contre\u00a0\u00bb un candidat;<\/li>\n<li>les syst\u00e8mes \u00e9lectoraux peuvent laisser croire que les sondages se sont\u00a0\u00ab tromp\u00e9s \u00bb.\u00a0 Prenez en exemple le cas de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2016 aux \u00c9tats-Unis. La quasi-totalit\u00e9 des sondages \u00ab pr\u00e9disaient\u00a0\u00bb une victoire d&rsquo;Hillary Clinton dans le vote populaire (par 3,1% en moyenne), et c\u2019est d&rsquo;ailleurs ce qui est arriv\u00e9 dans les faits! Pourtant, Donald Trump a gagn\u00e9 une majorit\u00e9 du coll\u00e8ge \u00e9lectoral am\u00e9ricain.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Selon nous, les sondages sont l\u00e0 pour informer la population des pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences de celle-ci \u00e0 un moment donn\u00e9. Ils servent \u00e0 identifier une tendance dans le temps et permettent aux commentateurs de baser leur analyse sur des faits (notamment retrouv\u00e9s dans nos sondages scientifiques).\u00a0 Le sondage est l\u00e0 pour \u00e9clairer l\u2019\u00e9lecteur et non pour le deviner.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Christian Bourque\u00a0<\/strong>compte plus de 20 ans d\u2019exp\u00e9rience en recherche en opinion publique et marketing. Il dirige l\u2019\u00e9quipe de chercheurs et conseillers du bureau de Montr\u00e9al de L\u00e9ger. \u00c0 titre de porte-parole de l\u2019entreprise, il commente r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement la politique provinciale et f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, et il est chroniqueur en tendances de consommation \u00e0 Radio-Canada.\u00a0<\/em><em>Christian enseigne les m\u00e9thodes de recherche \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Notre s\u00e9rie Pause-caf\u00e9 avec L\u00e9ger permet de d\u00e9mystifier les \u00e9tudes de march\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 nos experts qui r\u00e9pondent bri\u00e8vement \u00e0 certaines questions cl\u00e9s du monde des sondages. Si vous souhaitez obtenir plus d&rsquo;informations sur les services de recherche que nous offrons, cliquez sur le bouton \u00ab Contactez-nous \u00bb au bas de cette page afin d\u2019initier [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7703,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"post_language_cat":[39],"class_list":["post-14167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-intelligence","post_language_cat-fr-market-intelligence"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.1 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>PAUSE CAF\u00c9 - Les sondages sont-ils repr\u00e9sentatifs des \u00e9lections? - Leger<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/fr\/pause-cafe-les-sondages-sont-ils-representatifs-des-elections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PAUSE CAF\u00c9 - Les sondages sont-ils repr\u00e9sentatifs des \u00e9lections?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Notre s\u00e9rie Pause-caf\u00e9 avec L\u00e9ger permet de d\u00e9mystifier les \u00e9tudes de march\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 nos experts qui r\u00e9pondent bri\u00e8vement \u00e0 certaines questions cl\u00e9s du monde des sondages. 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