The 2021 Federal Election: O’Toole and Trudeau are Tied

THERE IS LESS THAN A WEEK UNTIL ELECTION DAY. 

We asked Canadians which party they intend to vote for (or have already voted for), which party they think will form the next government, and more.  

We are proud to have presented the most accurate poll results for the 2019 Canadian federal election, the 2020 British Columbia provincial election and the 2020 New Brunswick provincial election.

We look forward to providing relevant data about this important moment for Canada.

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DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT AT THE END OF THIS ARTICLE.


FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS

“Our last two surveys over the past 10 days have shown the Liberals and Conservatives in a tie. However, there is more to the story. Today’s survey reveals that the PPC has gained 2 points and the Maverick Party is now at 5% in Alberta, eating at Conservative support. The Bloc is up 3 points in Quebec after the events of last Thursday’s debate, showing little hope for the Tories in Quebec and threatening the potential for Liberal seat gains. Finally, at 20%, the NDP is trending slightly downwards. This survey is further evidence that next Monday night will likely be a nail-biter regardless of stripe.” – Christian Bourque, Executive Vice-President

THE 2021 FEDERAL ELECTION

  • 75% of Canadian decided voters say that the party they have chosen to vote for is their final choice. 14% are still likely to change their mind, and 11% don’t know.
  • The proportion of Canadians who think the Liberal Party of Canada will form the next government is trending downward.


METHODOLOGY

This web survey was conducted from September 10, 2021 to September 13, 2021 with 2,001 Canadians 18 years of age or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

For comparison, a probability sample of 2,001 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.18%, 19 times out of 20. 

THIS REPORT CONTAINS THE RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS AND MORE!

  • If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote?
  • Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind?
  • Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau?
  • In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?
  • Who do you think will win the next federal election and form the next government?

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