From July 26 to 28, 2024, we surveyed U.S. residents on the transition of the Democratic campaign from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris.
Some of the key highlights from our U.S. Politics Survey include…
Harris and Trump are in a tight race with less than 100 days to go before the election
- If the presidential election were held today, Harris would receive 49% of the votes and Trump 46%. Noteworthy is the significant decrease in the number of voters who would support another candidate, dropping from 12% in June 2024 to 5% in July 2024. Since our last poll in June 2024, 3rd party voters have shifted towards the two main political parties, with the Democrats gaining 4 points and the Republicans gaining 3 points.
- More than 4 in 10 Americans (41%) believe Biden should now resign as President of the United States as opposed to staying until on next January.
Kamala Harris’ gender and ethnicity would have very little impact on the vote, while being convicted of a felony has a slightly more significant impact.
- When it comes to gender, 66% of Americans think that Kamala Harris being a woman has no impact on how they will vote. Similarly, 72% of Americans say her identity has no impact on their voting decision.
- The picture is more nuanced regarding Donald Trump’s conviction of a felony: 40% of Americans say it makes them more likely to vote against him, while 43% say it makes no difference.
Both Democrats and Republicans fear an assassination attempt on their leader
- 61% of Republicans fear an assassination attempt on Donald Trump during the election, while 45% of Democrats fear an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from July 26 to July 28, 2024, with 1,002 U.S. residents, aged 18 or older. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±3.1%, (19 times out of 20) for the American sample.
