Every week during the federal election, we survey Canadians on their federal voting intentions. This week, we included regional breakdowns in Ontario and BC.
Highlights include…
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As the second week of the election campaign begins, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party continues to lead in voting intentions. Currently, 44% of Canadians say they would vote for the Liberal Party if the election were held today, compared to 38% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. These numbers remain stable compared to last week.
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Two-thirds of Canadians (64%) say their vote is final, while one-third (33%) remain open to changing their mind. Conservative voters (73%) are more likely to say that their choice is final. One-third of current Liberal supporters and over half of NDP voters (57%) may switch their vote.
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Regardless of their political affiliations, nearly half of Canadians (46%) believe the Liberal Party will win the next election, ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party (31%), Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (2%), Elizabeth May’s Green Party (1%), or Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party (1%). Those results are stable compared to last week.
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More than one in three Canadians (36%) believe Mark Carney is running the best campaign so far, placing him ahead of Pierre Poilievre, who is seen as leading the strongest campaign by 28%.
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Nearly half of Canadians feel that neither Mark Carney (48%) nor Pierre Poilievre (51%) are in touch with the average voter. Both leaders receive the same average score of 5.6 out of 10 when it comes to their perceived connection with Canadians.
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Canadians give Mark Carney an average score of 6.0 out of 10 on perceived patriotism, only slightly ahead of Pierre Poilievre, who scores 5.9. Overall, perceptions of patriotism are fairly divided, with around 4 in 10 respondents rating each leader on the lower end of the scale.
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Canadians are divided on whether Mark Carney is similar to Justin Trudeau, with 42% saying he is and 42% saying he is not. Meanwhile, nearly half (48%) believe Pierre Poilievre resembles Donald Trump, while 35% think he is different.
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Two-thirds of Canadians (67%) believe that Liberal leader Mark Carney should voluntarily disclose his business interests before the election, while 17% think he does not need to do so, and 16% don’t know.
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Canadians hold mixed views on the impact of Mark Carney’s proposed carbon pricing plan: 32% believe it will be better and more affordable than the current carbon tax, while 27% think it will be worse and less affordable. However, a large portion of respondents (41%) are unsure of how the plan would affect them as consumers.
Methodology
The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from March 26 to March 31, 2025 with a representative sample of 3,002 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel.
The data was statistically weighted according to 2021 Canadian Census figures.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 3,002 would have a margin of error of +/- 1.79%, 19 times out of 20.
