Federal Voting Intentions: August 2024

August 29, 2024

Every month, we conduct a survey of Canadians to explore their views on the current government and politics in Canada. This month, our survey was conducted between August 23 and 25, 2024. 

Some of the key highlights of our survey about Canadian federal politics include…

  • Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is currently leading by 18 points, ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. If a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25% would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (15%) has seen a 5-point decrease compared to last month.
  • There continues to be significant dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau’s government among Canadians. Two-thirds of Canadians (65%) are dissatisfied, while only 28% say they are currently satisfied. Only 4% of respondents reported being “very satisfied” with the current government, while a substantial 40% are “very dissatisfied.“
  • Two-thirds of Canadians (65%) believe the Government of Canada will admit too many immigrants with its current immigration plan. Only 20% think it will admit the right number, while 3% believe it will not admit enough. The survey also found that Canadians aged 55 and older (73%), those living in rural areas (75%), and Conservative voters (86%) are more likely to think that the current immigration plan is admitting too many immigrants in Canada.
  • A majority of Canadians believe that the current immigration rates are contributing to the housing crisis (78%), to stresses on health care services (76%), and that Canada’s immigration policy is too generous (72%). Conservative voters are more likely to agree with those statements.
  • Canadians are divided on the issue of increasing the number of Gazan refugees. 41% support the government policy of increasing the number of refugees by five, while 43% are opposed to it. Similarly, nearly two out of three Canadians (64%) are not confident that the Government of Canada is thoroughly screening immigrants from the Middle East.
  • More than half of Canadians (57%) are not familiar with the temporary foreign workers program administered by the Federal government, while 43% are familiar with it.
  • Around half of Canadians (48%) have a positive impression of the program, while 38% have a negative impression, and 14% do not know. Quebecers, at 61%, are more likely to have a positive impression of the program. Conservative voters, at 54%, are more likely to have a negative impression of the program.
  • Half of Canadians (49%) support using the program to fill low-wage or low-skill jobs, while 39% oppose it. Quebecers, at 49%, are more likely to support the use of the program, while Conservative voters, at 55%, are more likely to oppose it.
  • 53% of Canadians think that companies should not use the TFW program and instead should offer higher-wage jobs to attract people already living in Canada. On the other hand, 30% think that companies should continue to be allowed to use the TFW program to bring employees to Canada. Conservative voters are more likely to think that companies should not use the program.

Methodology

This web survey was conducted from August 16 to August 18, 2024, with 1,602 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±2.45%, (19 times out of 20) for the Canadian sample.

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