The 2021 Federal Election: The Countdown Has Begun – August 17, 2021

The countdown to the federal election has begun.

In the coming weeks, Leger will regularly survey Canadians on their voting intentions and election-related perspectives.

We are proud to have presented the most accurate poll results for the 2019 Canadian federal election, the 2020 British Columbia provincial election and the 2020 New Brunswick provincial election.

We look forward to providing relevant data about this important moment for Canada.

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DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT AT THE END OF THIS ARTICLE.


The 2021 Federal Election: The Winning Conditions (an editorial by Jean-Marc Léger)

The winning conditions are in place for a Justin Trudeau victory in the upcoming federal election, yet victory is far from assured. Although an election always starts with numbers, it often ends with emotion.

Click here to read the editorial

  • 50% of Canadians think it’s time for another party to govern, regardless of whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the Trudeau government.
50% of Canadians think it's time for another party to govern, regardless of whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the Trudeau government.
  • Canadians are nearly evenly split on whether the Liberal Party of Canada (26%) or the Conservative Party of Canada (24%) is best able to lead Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery.
  • 62% of Canadians indicate they will closely or very closely follow what the parties and leaders say during their election campaigns.
  • Given the pandemic situation in Canada, 24% of Canadians are worried about their safety when voting in the upcoming federal election.

Federal Voting Intentions

Federal Voting Intentions - August 17

METHODOLOGY

This web survey was conducted from August 13, 2021 to August 15, 2021 with 2,007 Canadians and 1,005 Americans, 18 years of age or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

For comparison, a probability sample of 2,007 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.18%, 19 times out of 20, while a probability sample of 1,005 would have a margin of error of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20. 

THIS REPORT CONTAINS THE RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS AND MORE!

  • If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote?  Would it be for…? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for the …
  • Who do you think will win the next federal election and form the next government?
  • As the pandemic subsides in Canada, which of the main political Parties do you feel is best able to lead Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery?
  • An election is likely to be called soon. Should this occur, how closely will you follow what the parties and leaders say during their campaigns?
  • Given the pandemic situation in Canada, are you worried about your safety when voting in a possible Federal election this summer or fall?

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