A new Leger poll suggests the federal political picture in Canada remains defined by Liberal stability and NDP uncertainty.
The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, continue to lead, with both personal approval ratings and satisfaction with the government remaining high, although the upward trend appears to have plateaued.
At the same time, the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) is entering a more uncertain chapter. Even though the survey was conducted just before Avi Lewis’s victory, from March 27 to 29, the results indicated that the party was struggling to remain relevant.
Most Canadians remain satisfied with the federal government
The Liberal Party maintains a clear lead in terms of voting intentions, with 48% of decided voters supporting them, well ahead of the Conservatives at 34%, while the NDP trails at 6%.
Mark Carney’s recent diplomatic initiatives on the international stage have earned him a 57% satisfaction rating for the federal government’s global performance, and 58% approve of his performance as Prime Minister to date.
The NDP’s problem is deeper than leadership
At the same time, the future of the NDP is looking less clear. Just days after Canadians were surveyed, the NDP elected Avi Lewis as its new leader with 56% of the vote on the first ballot, a decisive result that gives the party a fresh mandate but also raises new questions about its direction, unity, and ability to reconnect with voters after its 2025 collapse.
Before Avi Lewis officially took the helm, the survey, conducted from March 27 to 29, was already showing signs that the NDP was losing its grip on political relevance.
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- 32% of Canadians say the NDP remains relevant in Canada’s national political scene;
- 42%, say it does not;
- 26% are unsure.
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- Among Conservative voters: 17% see the NDP as relevant.
- Among Liberal voters: 43% say the NDP still matters nationally.
Methodology
This online survey was conducted from March 27 to March 30, 2026, among 1,618 Canadians aged 18 or older. Respondents were randomly recruited from Leger’s LEO online panel. Results were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, and presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.44%, 19 times out of 20.
