Quebec Voting Intentions: The PQ Remains Ahead, but the Race Is Far From Settled

Four months ahead of Quebec’s next provincial election, scheduled for October 5, 2026, according to Élections Québec, Quebec’s political landscape remains wide open. The latest Leger-Québecor survey shows that the Parti Québécois is still leading in voting intentions, but a significant share of voters have yet to make up their minds.

• The Parti Québécois leads with 30% of voting intentions among decided voters, followed by the PLQ at 27%, the CAQ at 21%, the PCQ at 13%, and QS at 8%.
• Among francophone voters, the PQ holds a clearer lead, with 35%, compared to 23% for the CAQ.
• Fewer than one in two decided voters (47%) say their vote choice is final.

• Satisfaction with the Fréchette government has dropped sharply, from 47% in May to 38% in June.
• Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the leader most often seen as the best choice for premier of Quebec, at 22%.

While the PQ remains in first place, the race is far from locked in. Only 47% of decided voters say their vote choice is final, while a majority say they could still change their mind. This level of voter fluidity will be important to watch, especially with several parties still relatively close in the standings.

This uncertainty is also a reminder that the next few months could be decisive. For a look at last month’s political landscape, read our previous analysis on Quebec voting intentions and the “Fréchette effect”.

The drop in satisfaction with the Fréchette government is one of the survey’s most notable shifts. In just one month, satisfaction fell from 47% to 38%, while dissatisfaction rose to 43%. This suggests that the momentum observed in May may be fading, and that voters are taking a more critical view of the government’s performance.

For the PQ, however, the picture remains favourable: the party continues to lead in voting intentions overall and among francophones, while Paul St-Pierre Plamondon maintains an advantage on leadership. The question now is whether that advantage will hold as many voters continue to weigh their options.

This Léger-Québecor survey was conducted online from June 12 to 15, 2026, among 1,014 Quebecers aged 18 or older and eligible to vote. The data were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, and presence of children in the household. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a maximum margin of error of ±3.08%, 19 times out of 20.

To cite these survey results, please use the following attribution: Léger-Québecor survey.