Quebec Voting Intentions: CAQ Falls to Fourth Place

One week before election day, the balance of support is shifting behind the Parti Québécois. The CAQ has fallen to 16% among decided voters, placing it fourth behind the PQ, PLQ and PCQ. At the same time, the desire for a change in government has risen sharply

• The PQ remains in the lead at 30%, followed by the PLQ at 26%, the PCQ at 18% and the CAQ at 16%. Compared with September 21, the PLQ is up three points and the CAQ is down four.
• Among Francophone voters, the PQ stands at 37%, ahead of the PCQ at 19% and the CAQ at 18%. The PQ therefore holds an 18-point lead over its closest rival among Francophones. 
• 74% of Quebecers want a change in government and a new party to govern Quebec, up nine points in one week. 
• 71% of decided voters now say their choice is final, compared with 59% the previous week.

The main movement this week is taking place behind the PQ. The CAQ falls from 20% to 16% of voting intentions, while the PLQ rises from 23% to 26% and the PCQ reaches 18%. The PQ remains relatively stable at 30%. 

Among Francophone voters, the PQ holds 37% support. The PCQ follows at 19%, ahead of the CAQ at 18%. The PQ’s lead over its closest rival among Francophones now stands at 18 points, compared with 13 points a week earlier.

With just days to go before the vote, nearly three in four Quebecers now say they want a change in government. That proportion has risen from 65% to 74% in one week.

At the same time, the vote is becoming more settled: 71% of decided voters say their choice is final, compared with 59% on September 21.

This online survey was conducted from September 25 to 27, 2026, among 1,001 Quebec respondents aged 18 or older who are eligible to vote. Respondents were randomly recruited from Leger’s LEO online panel and could complete the survey in English or French.

Results were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of no more than ±3.10%, 19 times out of 20

To cite the results: Leger/Le Journal/TVA survey.