BC Election 2026: Conservatives Gain Ground in Final Days

With British Columbians heading to the polls on October 24, the Conservatives enter the final days of the provincial election campaign with a five-point lead over the NDP.

According to our latest BC election poll, conducted from October 20 to 22, voting intentions have shifted throughout the campaign, with Conservative support strengthening and fewer voters remaining undecided. The results offer a final snapshot of voter preferences before election day.

• 44% of decided voters support the Conservatives, compared with 39% for the NDP.

• Green support has risen to 13%, up four points from our October 9-12 poll and returning to its September level.

• 6% of BC residents remain undecided, down from 12% in our previous poll.

Since September, Conservative support has increased by five points, while the NDP has gained three. The gap between the two parties now stands at five points, compared with just two points in our previous October election update.

While the Conservatives have gained ground over the course of the campaign, the NDP has maintained support near the 40% mark in both October polls. The latest results suggest that the Conservatives have strengthened their position without a substantial decline in NDP support.

The Green vote could also play a role in closely contested ridings. Although the Conservatives and NDP continue to dominate voting intentions, more than one in ten decided voters support the Greens, representing a share of the electorate that could influence local results depending on how support is distributed.

Meanwhile, the declining proportion of undecided voters suggests that more British Columbians have settled on a preferred party as election day approaches. With fewer voters left to persuade, turnout and the geographic distribution of support could become particularly important in determining the final outcome.

The Conservatives hold their strongest advantage among residents aged 35 to 54, where they lead the NDP by 14 points. Among voters aged 18 to 34 and those aged 55 and older, the two parties are more closely matched.

Differences are also evident between men and women. Conservatives lead among men by 12 points, while the NDP holds a narrow two-point advantage among women. The Greens perform particularly well among younger residents, attracting 20% support among those aged 18 to 34.

In Metro Vancouver, the Conservatives lead the NDP by four points (44% versus 40%), while the parties are virtually tied on Vancouver Island (39% versus 40%). Outside these two regions, the Conservatives hold a wider advantage, with 46% support compared with 36% for the NDP.

These differences highlight the importance of where each party’s support is concentrated. A province-wide lead does not necessarily translate into the same advantage in every riding, particularly when the two leading parties remain competitive across several demographic and regional groups.

With Final Voting Day scheduled for October 24, the Conservatives enter the election with a stronger position than at the beginning of the campaign. The final result will depend on how voters translate their stated preferences into ballots and how those votes are distributed across BC’s ridings.

This online survey was conducted from October 20 to 22, 2026, among 1,072 British Columbia residents aged 18 or older, randomly recruited through Leger’s LEO online panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of the population of British Columbia. 

A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,072 respondents would have a margin of error of no greater than ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.