Alberta Referendum: 70% want to remain in Canada

With Alberta’s October 19 referendum approaching, the electorate appears increasingly engaged, and increasingly decided.

Our latest report finds that 70% of Albertans say the province should remain part of Canada, up from 65% in August. Another 22% would choose to have the Government of Alberta begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation, while just 7% remain undecided.

But the referendum is having an impact beyond the ballot question itself. Provincial nationalism and separatism has risen sharply on Albertans’ list of concerns, while many expect the debate to hurt Alberta’s economy. For some, the uncertainty is already affecting household spending and even personal relationships.

• Support for remaining in Canada has strengthened, rising five points since August to 70%, compared with 22% who favour beginning the separation process.

• Voter engagement is growing: 77% of Albertans now rate their likelihood of voting at 8 to 10 out of 10, up from 68% in August.

• Provincial nationalism and separatism has become a leading issue, tied with health care at 16% as Albertans’ top concern.

• Half of Albertans (50%) expect negative economic consequences from the referendum and ongoing separation discussions, compared with 21% who anticipate a positive impact.

• The debate is affecting personal relationships: 30% report tensions with family, friends, coworkers or neighbours over separation discussions.

The movement since our August survey favours remaining in Canada, and that advantage is reinforced by a sizeable gap in how certain voters are about their choice.

Among those who currently say Alberta should remain a province of Canada, 91% rate their certainty at 8 to 10 out of 10. Among those who support beginning the legal process toward separation, that figure is 71%.

Older Albertans are especially engaged, with 92% of those aged 55 and older rating their likelihood of voting at 8 to 10. High stated turnout also extends across political groups, reaching 93% among NDP voters and 78% among UCP voters.

The referendum also exposes a pronounced partisan divide. Nearly all NDP voters, 98%, currently favour remaining in Canada. Among UCP voters, opinion is much more evenly divided: 43% favour remaining, while 48% support beginning the legal process toward a future separation referendum.

The result is an electorate that appears highly motivated, but far from politically united on what the referendum represents.

The referendum is also reshaping the province’s issue agenda.

In April, 9% of Albertans named provincial nationalism and separatism as the most important issue facing Alberta. Its growing prominence now places it ahead of inflation and rising interest rates (14%), the economy (10%) and housing affordability (9%).

The broader provincial mood remains unsettled. Fifty-eight per cent of Albertans say the province is on the wrong track, compared with 36% who believe it is heading in the right direction.

Those perceptions are highly polarized politically. While 66% of UCP voters believe Alberta is moving in the right direction, 87% of NDP voters say it is on the wrong track.

The referendum therefore arrives in an environment where views on Alberta’s future are closely connected to broader political identities and perceptions of the province’s direction.

For many Albertans, the implications of the referendum are not purely constitutional or political.

Economic concerns have been a recurring theme in our research on Alberta’s separation debate. The latest results reveal a pronounced partisan divide in expectations: 80% of NDP voters anticipate a negative economic impact, compared with just 19% of UCP voters.

There are also signs that uncertainty around the referendum is influencing household decisions. Twenty-one per cent of Albertans say their household spending has decreased because of the impending referendum, up significantly from 14% in August.

The personal impact is particularly pronounced among younger Albertans. Forty-four per cent of those aged 18 to 34 say discussions about separation have caused tension in their relationships or interactions with others, compared with 19% among those aged 55 and older.

Meanwhile, 61% of Albertans are very or somewhat concerned about the possibility of American influence or interference in discussions around separation and the upcoming referendum.

Taken together, the findings suggest that the referendum has become more than a vote about Alberta’s constitutional future. As October 19 approaches, it is also shaping how Albertans think about the province’s economy, political direction and relationships with one another.

An online survey was conducted among 1,001 Alberta residents aged 18 and older from October 2 to October 4, 2026. Respondents were randomly recruited using LEO’s online panel.

Results were weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of Alberta’s population.

As the survey was conducted using a non-probability online sample, no margin of error can be associated with the results. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,001 respondents would have a margin of error no greater than ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.