Mark Carney’s Liberals are gaining ground again in federal voting intentions this September. Our latest survey also shows an increase in satisfaction with the federal government and approval of the Prime Minister’s performance.
Key Highlights
- Among decided voters, the Liberal Party of Canada stands at 49%, compared with 33% for the Conservative Party, 7% for the Bloc Québécois, 6% for the NDP and 3% for the Green Party.
- The Liberals are up 3 points since our August survey, while the Conservatives are down one point and the NDP is down two.
- 57% of Canadians are satisfied with the Canadian government led by Mark Carney, compared with 36% who are dissatisfied.
- 58% of Canadians approve of Prime Minister Carney’s performance, while 34% disapprove.
- Regional differences remain pronounced: Liberal support reaches 59% in British Columbia, while Conservative support stands at 64% in Alberta.
Liberals Rebound, but the Picture Remains Highly Regional
At 49% among decided voters, the Liberals are back near the 50% high recorded in our June federal poll. Their national lead, however, reflects very different political dynamics across the country.
Liberal support is strongest in British Columbia and Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals stand at 47%, ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 29% and the Conservatives at 16%. In Alberta, the balance is reversed, with 64% supporting the Conservatives.
Views of the Government and Carney Improve as Well
The Liberal increase coincides with improved assessments of both the federal government and Prime Minister Carney. Since August, satisfaction with the government and approval of Carney’s performance have each increased by three points.
These views remain strongly associated with federal voting intentions. Among Liberal voters, 91% are satisfied with the government and 92% approve of Prime Minister Carney’s performance. Among Conservative voters, those proportions fall to 21% and 23%, respectively.
The survey cannot establish that one of these shifts is driving the others. It does show that, in September, the main indicators measured are moving in the same direction.
Methodology
This online survey was conducted from September 5 to 7, 2026, among 1,538 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited through our LEO online panel.
Results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error no greater than ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
