Federal Voting Intentions: April 2024

May 1, 2024

Every month, we conduct a survey of Canadians to explore their views on the current government. This month, our survey was conducted between April 26 and 28, 2024.

Some of the key highlights of our survey aboutCanadian federal politics include…

  • Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party remains in the lead, 21 points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. If a federal election were to be held today, 44% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 23% would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. Since last month, the Liberal Party has experienced a decline of three percentage points, while the Conservative Party has gained two points.
  • One-third of Canadians think Pierre Poilievre is the leader who would make the best Prime Minister among the federal party leaders (32%), ahead of Justin Trudeau (16%) and Jagmeet Singh (11%). Pierre Poilievre has experienced an increase of three points compared to last month.
  • Almost seven out of ten Canadians (69%) are dissatisfied with Trudeau’s government, compared to only one-quarter (25%) who are satisfied. The proportion of Canadians who say they are very dissatisfied has jumped by 6 percentage points, going from 40% in March to 46% in April.
  • Nearly one in five Canadians (18%) are somewhat or very likely to change the party they currently favor by the next election. Voters of the Conservative Party (21%) and those of the Green Party (29%) are more likely to consider changing parties.
  • The main reasons that could lead voters to change parties are new policies put forward by another party that they agree with more (30%), if things in the country start to get generally worse (27%), and new policies put forward by another party that they don’t agree with (26%). Conservative voters are more likely to change party due to mistakes made by the party leader (30%). Liberal voters are more likely to do so if a new person leads the party (30%), and Green voters are more likely to do so for strategic voting.

Methodology

This web survey was conducted from April 26 to 28, 2024, with 1,610 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of 1,610 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.44 %, 19 times out of 20.

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