Most Alberta residents continue to favour remaining a province of Canada, but our August survey shows a significant increase in the share who are undecided or not sure about how they would vote.
The official referendum question asks Albertans to choose between remaining a province of Canada and having the Government of Alberta begin the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada.
Compared with our June study of Alberta’s separation debate, the latest wave also provides a closer look at potential turnout and how perceptions of the debate are changing.
Key Highlights
- 65% of Alberta residents say Alberta should remain a province of Canada, while 23% favour beginning the legal process toward a future binding referendum on separation. Another 10% are undecided or not sure.
- The undecided share rose significantly from 6% in June to 10% in August.
- 72% of Alberta residents rate their chance of voting at 8 to 10 out of 10. Stated turnout intention varies considerably by age, from 53% among those aged 18 to 34 to 90% among those aged 55 and older.
- 48% expect the referendum and separation discussions to have a negative impact on Alberta’s economy, down significantly from 56% in June. One quarter (25%) expect a positive impact.
- On provincial voting intentions, the UCP leads the Alberta NDP among decided voters, 51% to 41%.
More Albertans Are Unsure, Even as Attention Remains High
The increase in undecided or unsure respondents is the clearest movement in the August wave.
At the same time, public attention remains high. Three quarters of Alberta residents (75%) say they are following discussions about Alberta sovereignty and separation very or somewhat closely.
The August survey also looks more closely at potential turnout. Overall, 72% of Alberta residents rate their likelihood of voting at 8 to 10 out of 10. Age differences are substantial: 53% of those aged 18 to 34 give themselves an 8-to-10 likelihood of voting, compared with 70% of those aged 35 to 54 and 90% of those aged 55 and older.
These figures measure stated voting intention at the time of the survey, rather than actual turnout.
Economic Concerns Have Eased
Economic expectations remain more negative than positive, but views have improved since June.
For most households, the referendum is not expected to change spending behaviour. A majority of Alberta residents (57%) say their household spending habits will stay the same, while 14% report decreased spending and 14% report increased spending because of the referendum.
Concern about possible American influence or interference also remains widespread. Nearly two thirds of Alberta residents (62%) are very or somewhat concerned. Concern is higher among Alberta NDP voters (85%), but a slim majority of UCP voters (51%) are also concerned.
Methodology
This Leger online survey was conducted from August 21 to August 23, 2026, among 1,001 Alberta residents aged 18 or older. Respondents were randomly recruited through LEO, Léger’s online panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of Alberta’s population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,001 respondents would yield a margin of error no greater than ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
