Every week during the federal election, we survey Canadians on their federal voting intentions.
Some of the key highlights of our survey about Canadian Politics…
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With the election campaign just getting started, Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada are leading in voting intentions. Currently, 44% of Canadians say they would vote for the Liberal Party if the election were held today, compared to 38% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. The NDP trails far behind with 6% of voting intentions.
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Mark Carney (39%) is considered the party leader who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, ahead of Pierre Poilievre (28%).
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Regardless of their political affiliations, nearly half of Canadians (48%) believe the Liberal Party will win the next election, ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party (31%), Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (3%), Elizabeth May’s Green Party (1%), or Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party.
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Canadians are divided on what they consider to be the most important issue in this election. Thirty-six percent (36%) believe it is determining who would be the best Prime Minister to deal with President Trump and aggressive U.S. trade actions. A similar proportion (33%) say the key issue is choosing the leader best suited to change the direction Canada has taken over the past four years and improve life for Canadians. Meanwhile, 24% believe the most important question is who can best strengthen and grow Canada’s economy. Liberal voters are more likely to see managing the relationship with President Trump as the top priority, while Conservative voters are more inclined to prioritize changing the direction Canada has taken in recent years.
Methodology
The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from March 21 to March 23, 2025 with a representative sample of 1,599 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel.
The data was statistically weighted according to 2021 Canadian Census figures.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,599 would have a margin of error of +/- 2.45%, 19 times out of 20.
