From January 31 to February 2, 2025, we surveyed Ontarians on their provincial politics.
Some of the key highlights of our survey include…
- Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (47%) is still leading by 24 points, ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party (23%), Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP (17%), Mike Schreiner’s Green Party (8%), and the New Blue Party of Ontario (2%).
- More than half of Ontarians (57%) approve of Premier Ford’s response to President Trump’s remarks on trade tariffs and his suggestion that Canada should become the 51st state. Support is stronger among Progressive Conservative voters, with 75% expressing approval.
- Ontarians’ impression of Doug Ford has improved by 16% since the start of the election, the largest increase among party leaders. He leads in improvement ahead of Bonnie Crombie (12%), Marit Stiles (9%), and Mike Schreiner (7%).
- Nearly half of Ontarians (46%) agree that a provincial election is needed now to secure a strong mandate to address trade and economic challenges posed by the U.S. and President Trump, while 39% disagree. Agreement is highest among Progressive Conservative voters, with 68% supporting the need for an election now.
- Ontarians are divided in their views on the current provincial government. One-third (32%) are dissatisfied with Premier Doug Ford and the PC government, believing it’s time for the NDP or Liberals to take over. Nearly the same proportion (30%) are satisfied and would vote for them again. Meanwhile, one in five (19%) are dissatisfied with Ford and the PCs but still see them as the best option, while another 19% are unsure. Overall, 49% are prepared to re-elect the Ford government.
- Inflation and the rising cost of living (19%) are the top concerns for Ontarians, followed by housing affordability (11%) and trade sanctions in U.S. relations (11%). Concern over inflation is particularly high among Ontarians aged 35 to 54, with one in four (25%) identifying it as the province’s most pressing issue.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from January 31 to February 2, 2025, with 1,004 Ontarians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±3.09%, (19 times out of 20) for the Canadian sample.
