The Ontario Progressive Conservatives continue to lead in provincial voting intentions, while the Ontario Liberals sit within striking distance, according to a new Leger survey of Ontarians.
Among decided voters, 39% say they would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party if a provincial election were held today. The Ontario Liberal Party follows at 34%, while the Ontario NDP stands at 17% and the Green Party of Ontario at 6%.
Compared with the official results of the 2025 Ontario provincial election, PC support is down four points, while Liberal support is up four points. The NDP is down two points and the Greens are up one point.
More than half of Ontarians say the province is on the wrong track
Our latest survey also finds that a majority of Ontarians are dissatisfied with the direction of the province. More than half, 56%, say Ontario is on the wrong track, while 36% say things are heading in the right direction.
Views differ sharply by voting intention.
PC voters are much more likely to say Ontario is heading in the right direction, at 59%. By contrast, 80% of NDP voters, 66% of Green voters, and 58% of Liberal voters say the province is on the wrong track.
Regionally, residents of Southwest Ontario are especially likely to say the province is on the wrong track, at 64%. Northern Ontarians are more likely than other regions to say Ontario is moving in the right direction, at 51%.
Doug Ford Remains Ontario’s Most Polarizing Political Figure
Among the political figures tested, Premier Doug Ford has the highest favourability rating, with 33% of Ontarians saying they have a favourable impression of him. Marit Stiles follows closely at 31%, while Mike Schreiner stands at 25%.
The survey also tested two figures who have been mentioned in connection with the provincial Liberal leadership conversation: Nathan Erskine-Smith and Navdeep Bains. Since the survey was conducted, Erskine-Smith lost the Ontario Liberal nomination race in Scarborough Southwest, adding uncertainty to his path into provincial politics. Bains, meanwhile, has been reported as a possible Ontario Liberal leadership contender, but is not currently listed among the party’s officially confirmed leadership candidates. Both remain less familiar to many Ontarians, with favourable impressions at 12% and 10%, respectively.
However, Ford also has the highest unfavourability rating among the figures tested.
Nearly six in ten Ontarians, 59%, have an unfavourable impression of the premier.
Nearly half of Ontarians, 48%, say their impression of Premier Ford has worsened over the past few months. This is especially pronounced among NDP voters, at 80%, as well as Liberal voters, at 58%. Among current PC voters, 27% say their impression of Ford has worsened.
Cost of living remains the top issue in Ontario
Inflation and the rising cost of living remain the top issue Ontarians want the provincial government to focus on. More than one in five Ontarians, 22%, name inflation and rising costs, including groceries and gas, as their most important issue.
Housing affordability ranks second at 10%, followed by trust in politics and ethics in government at 7%. Health care issues also remain present among Ontarians’ concerns, including reducing surgical wait times and adding healthcare resources, at 6%, and doctor shortages, at 5%.
Many Ontarians say it may be time for a change in government
When asked which statement best reflects their view of the current Ontario PC government, 23% of Ontarians say they are satisfied with Premier Doug Ford and the PCs and would vote for them again. Another 20% say they are dissatisfied with Ford and the PCs, but still see them as a better choice to govern than the NDP or Liberals.
Nearly four in ten Ontarians, 39%, say they are dissatisfied with the Ford government and believe it is time for either the NDP or Liberals to have a chance to govern Ontario. Another 18% are unsure.
This sentiment varies strongly by party preference.
Among PC voters, 58% say they are satisfied with Ford and the PCs and would vote for them again. Among Liberal voters, 68% say it is time for the NDP or Liberals to govern, as do 88% of NDP voters and 62% of Green voters.
For more political polling insights, read Leger’s latest federal politics survey, which looks at federal voting intentions and Canadians’ views on key national issues.
Methodology
This online survey was conducted from May 8 to May 11, 2026, among 1,003 Ontarians aged 18 or older. Respondents were randomly recruited through Leger’s LEO online panel and had the option of completing the survey in English or French.
Results were weighted by age, gender, region, education, and presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of the Ontario population.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.09%, 19 times out of 20.
