From February 7 to February 9, 2025, we surveyed Ontarians on their provincial politics.
Highlights of the survey include…
- Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (47%) is leading by 21 points, ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party (26%), Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP (17%), Mike Schreiner’s Green Party (6%), and the New Blue Party of Ontario (2%). It should be noted that the Liberal Party has gained 3 points since last week.
- More than half of Ontarians (59%) approve of Premier Ford’s response to President Trump’s remarks on trade tariffs and his suggestion that Canada should become the 51st state. Support is stronger among Progressive Conservative voters, with 79% expressing approval. Results are similar to those of last week.
- Ontarians’ impression of Doug Ford has improved by 19% since the start of the election, a three-point increase since last week. He leads in improvement ahead of Bonnie Crombie (13%), Marit Stiles (11%), and Mike Schreiner (7%).
- Nearly half of Ontarians (47%) agree that a provincial election is needed now to secure a strong mandate to address trade and economic challenges posed by the U.S. and President Trump, while 40% disagree. Agreement is highest among Progressive Conservative voters, with 69% supporting the need for an election now. Results are similar to those of last week.
- Ontarians are divided in their views on the current provincial government. One-third (33%) are dissatisfied with Premier Doug Ford and the PC government, believing it’s time for the NDP or Liberals to take over. Nearly the same proportion (28%) are satisfied and would vote for them again. Meanwhile, one in five (19%) are dissatisfied with Ford and the PCs but still see them as the best option, while another 18% are unsure. Overall, 46% are prepared to re-elect the Ford government.
- Inflation and the rising cost of living (20%) are the top concerns for Ontarians, followed by housing affordability (11%). U.S. relations trade sanctions and tariffs have declined by three points since last week.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from February 7 to February 9, 2025, with 1,004 Ontarians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±3.09%, (19 times out of 20) for the Canadian sample.
