UCP Leadership Ballot Poll

September 9, 2022

Leger recently surveyed Albertans about their provincial voting intentions and surveyed UCP supporters about their perspectives on the UCP leadership race.

SOME OF THE KEY FINDINGS OF OUR SURVEY ON VOTING INTENTIONS AND THE UCP LEADERSHIP RACE INCLUDE…

  • Decided voters are favouring the UCP (44%) over the NDP (41%) for the first time since the general election in 2019.
  • Regionally, the NDP remains strong in Edmonton (52%), while the UCP is leading in other Alberta (53%) and among older voters.
  • Among Albertans, Brian Jean edges out the other two front runners as the candidate best able to beat Rachel Notley in the May 2023 general election.
  • According to the preferential ballot results calculated by Leger, among UCP supporters, Brian Jean would win the UCP leadership race with 53% of the vote.*
*Preferential ballot results were calculated among UCP supporters (defined as those who would vote for the UCP were an election held today). The voting process to elect the next leader of the UCP includes only members of the UCP who cast their ballots and whose ballots are received on time (by October 3, 2022). These results reflect the findings from those who claim to support the UCP in this poll, not necessarily members qualified to vote for the next leader. See page 8 of the full report for a complete description of the methodology.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

  • A total of n=1,006 online surveys were conducted among Albertans aged 18 or older via Leger’s LEO panel.
  • The survey was conducted from September 1 to 5, 2022, using computer-assisted web interviewing (CAWI) technology.
  • Using data from the 2021 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, and region in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.

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