BC Election 2026: A Close Race With Voters Still in Play

With less than two weeks until British Columbians head to the polls, the provincial election remains a close race between the Conservatives and the NDP.

According to Leger’s latest BC election poll, the Conservatives hold a narrow two-point lead among decided voters, while Green support has fallen since September. Despite growing support for the two leading parties, a significant share of voters remain open to changing their minds before election day.

• 42% of decided voters support the Conservatives, compared with 40% for the NDP.

• Green support has fallen from 13% in September to 9% in October, a statistically significant decline.

• 56% of BC residents believe the province is on the wrong track, compared with 34% who believe it is headed in the right direction.

• 26% of British Columbians say they are likely to switch their vote, including 34% of those aged 18 to 34.

• 39% say their opinion of David Eby has worsened over the past week, compared with 20% who say the same about Lorne Doerkson.

Since Leger’s September poll, support for the Conservatives has increased by three points, while the NDP has gained four. With just two points separating the parties, neither has established a clear lead as the campaign enters its final weeks.

The NDP currently leads on Vancouver Island (44% versus 39%) and holds a narrow advantage in Metro Vancouver (42% versus 41%). The Conservatives have a stronger lead in the rest of the province, where they receive 45% support compared with 33% for the NDP. These regional differences could be important in determining how a close province-wide race translates into individual riding results.

The decline in Green support also suggests that more voters may be gravitating toward the two leading parties. However, Green support remains strongest among younger voters, at 16% among those aged 18 to 34, compared with 6% among residents aged 55 and older.

With the two leading parties so closely matched, the choices of voters supporting smaller parties could become particularly important in ridings where their preferred party is not running a candidate. According to Elections BC’s official candidate list, not all parties are fielding candidates in every riding.

Among supporters of smaller parties, 29% say they would vote for the NDP if their preferred party did not have a candidate in their riding, while 21% would vote Conservative. Another 22% would vote for a party other than the NDP or Conservatives, and 11% are unsure which party they would choose.

Green supporters may be particularly open to reconsidering their choice. More than one-third (37%) say they are likely to switch parties, compared with 23% of Conservative supporters and 20% of NDP supporters.

The availability of local candidates could therefore influence how smaller-party support is redistributed, particularly in closely contested ridings. These findings offer an indication of voters’ potential choices, although the results for smaller-party supporters are based on a limited sample.

Premier David Eby has experienced more negative reactions over the past week of the campaign. While 39% of BC residents say their opinion of him has worsened, only 13% report an improvement. Nearly half (47%) say their opinion has remained unchanged.

Perceptions of Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson are more evenly divided, with 23% reporting an improved opinion and 20% saying theirs has worsened. A majority (56%) report no change.

These differences should also be viewed in the context of each leader’s position. Eby is the incumbent premier with an established governing record, while Doerkson is relatively new to the leadership role and voters are still forming their impressions of him.

With neither party holding a commanding lead, the remaining campaign period leaves room for shifts in support, particularly among voters who are not firmly committed to their current choice ahead of the October 24 provincial election.

This online survey was conducted from October 9 to 12, 2026, among 1,000 British Columbia residents aged 18 or older, randomly recruited through Leger’s LEO online panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of the population of British Columbia. 

A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,000 respondents would have a margin of error of no greater than ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.