Alberta Voting Intentions – March 2024

March 15, 2024

From March 8 to 11th, 2024, we surveyed Albertans to know more about their federal and provincial voting intentions, perspectives on the Alberta government’s plan to withdraw Alberta from the Canadian Pension Plan and replace it with a new provincial pension plan, perceptions surrounding the NDP leadership race, and opinions on the Alberta Government’s 2024 budget.

Some of the key highlights of our survey include…

Politics

  • UCP ballot support, at 49% of decided voters, has held steady and continues to lead the NDP province-wide. This month, the lead has grown by one point to 8 points from a month ago.
  • Former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s entry into the NDP leadership could have a somewhat positive impact on the likelihood of Albertans voting for the party should he win the leadership. Four in ten (40%) Albertans would be more likely to vote for the Alberta NDP if Naheed Nenshi were to win the leadership race—drawing some potential support from current UCP voters as well as in the city of Calgary.

2024 Budget

  • Just under half of Albertans (47%) report they are familiar with Alberta’s recently tabled 2024 provincial budget. In terms of agreement with specific provisions in the budget, Albertans are most supportive of:
    • Budget increases to wildfire operations (74% total agreement)
    • Increases for health care facilities (74%) and health services (73%)

Alberta Pension Plan

  • Slightly less than one quarter (24%) of Albertans believe the Alberta government should create a new Provincial Pension Plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan for Albertans. This is virtually unchanged from when it was last polled in January of this year.

Methodology

An online survey was conducted among 1,001 Albertans, 18 years of age or older, from March 8 to 11, 2024. The data was weighted according to the Canadian census figures for age, gender, and region within the province. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample. However, for comparative purposes, a probability sample of 1,001 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

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