From January 24 to 26, 2025, we surveyed Canadians on federal politics.
Highlights include…
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is currently leading by 18 points, ahead of the Liberal Party. If a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25% would vote for the Liberal Party. The NDP trail at 16%. The Liberal Party has seen a significant increase of 4 percentage points since the last measurement, while the Conservatives have experienced a significant decrease of 4 points.
Among potential successors to Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney emerges as the clear frontrunner, garnering 34% support. Chrystia Freeland follows with 14%, while Karina Gould trails with 4%. Carney’s appeal is particularly strong among Liberal voters, with 57% backing his leadership.
Mark Carney is also seen as the best suited to manage the relationship with the Trump administration, with 35% support. Chrystia Freeland follows with 18%, and Karina Gould trails at 5%. Once again, Liberal voters are more likely to believe that Carney is the best person to handle this, with 55% support.
Among Canadians who do not plan to vote for the Liberal Party, one-quarter (25%) indicates they might reconsider when the Party elects a new leader, while 60% remain unlikely to change their minds, and 14% are unsure. Green Party voters (47%) and NDP voters (44%) are more likely to vote for the Liberal Party under new leadership.
Regarding Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs, 64% of Canadians believe that any response should ensure no province, including their own, suffers significantly more than others, while 23% think it’s acceptable if their province suffers more as long as it’s in Canada’s best interest. Quebecers (69%) are more likely to believe that the response should not disproportionately impact any province. Albertans (14%) are significantly less likely to agree that their province can suffer more if it’s for the greater good of Canada.
Methodology
The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from January 24 to 26, 2025, with a representative sample of 1,527 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel.
The data was statistically weighted according to 2021 Canadian Census figures.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,527 would have a margin of error of +/- 2.51%, 19 times out of 20.
