As Quebec’s 2026 provincial election approaches, the Parti Québécois remains in the lead with 30% of voting intentions, but the race is tightening: the Quebec Liberal Party is close behind at 28%, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has climbed back to 22%. After several difficult months, the CAQ appears to be regaining ground in a political landscape that has become much more competitive than it was just a few months ago. These latest results are in line with recent trends observed in our previous analyses on the “Fréchette effect” and the shifting dynamics between the PQ, the PLQ, and the CAQ.
The “Fréchette Effect” Is Gaining Momentum
The CAQ has jumped 9 points since early April, rising from 13% to 22% in voting intentions. This rebound is accompanied by an improvement in perceptions of the government led by Christine Fréchette, with 47% of Quebecers saying they are satisfied with her government’s performance. In addition, 39% of respondents believe she has done an excellent or good job so far, while 30% say she is a better premier than François Legault. These results suggest that the CAQ’s leadership change has helped the party regain some of its competitiveness after a more challenging period, as outlined in our March 30, 2026 analysis.
The Parti Québécois Maintains a Solid Foundation
Support for the PQ remains especially strong among Francophone voters, where the party captures 37% of voting intentions — an 11-point lead over the CAQ, which sits at 26% among this group. The PLQ, meanwhile, continues to perform particularly well among non-Francophone voters, with 59% support in this segment. With the next provincial campaign just months away, the race remains wide open: the PQ still holds the advantage, the PLQ remains highly competitive, and the CAQ is back in the mix. One thing is clear: Quebec’s political landscape is entering a new phase, and the 2026 race is shaping up to be much tighter than it looked only a few weeks ago.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted by Leger from May 15 to 18, 2026, among 1,027 Quebecers aged 18 or over who are eligible to vote. Respondents could complete the survey in English or French and were randomly recruited from Leger’s online panel, LEO.
The results were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, and presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of Quebec’s population. For comparison purposes, a probabilistic sample of this size would have a maximum margin of error of ±3.06%, 19 times out of 20.
This survey is the property of Leger-Quebecor. Any publication must comply with copyright requirements by using the mention “Leger-Quebecor survey.”
