Federal Politics: Liberals Hold 15-Point Lead

Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to lead in federal voting intentions, with satisfaction toward the government and approval of the Prime Minister holding steady. But Canadians’ assessments of the government’s progress vary considerably by issue.

According to Leger’s latest federal political survey, conducted from October 9 to 12, 2026, Canadians are increasingly positive about national unity and progress on Canada-U.S. trade relations, while affordability remains a weaker area for the government.

• The Liberals lead the Conservatives by 15 points, with 48% support among decided voters compared with 33% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 8%, up two points since September.

• 57% of Canadians are satisfied with the federal government, while 58% approve of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s performance. Both figures are unchanged from September.

• 56% believe national unity has improved since Carney took office, an increase of nine points since November 2025.

• Trade diversification receives the highest average performance rating (6.5/10), while housing affordability (5.0/10) and the cost of living (4.9/10) receive the lowest.

As observed in Leger’s September federal poll, the national Liberal lead reflects considerably different political preferences across the country.

Liberal support is strongest in Atlantic Canada (53%), Ontario (51%) and British Columbia (50%). The Conservatives lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (46%), while Alberta is closely divided, with 43% supporting each of the two major parties.

In Quebec, the Liberals hold 47% of decided voting intentions, ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 26% and the Conservatives at 17%.

The Liberals also maintain a particularly strong lead among Canadians aged 55 and older (58% versus 27% for the Conservatives). Among voters aged 35 to 54, however, the two parties are nearly tied, at 41% and 39%, respectively.

The results show that while the Liberals maintain a substantial national advantage, their lead is far from uniform across regions and age groups.

Perceptions of national unity have become more positive since November 2025, particularly among older Canadians. Two-thirds (66%) of those aged 55 and older believe national unity has improved since Carney took office. Even among Conservative supporters, one-third (33%) share that view.

Canadians are also becoming more familiar with the federal government’s Projects of National Interest initiative, which is intended to advance major infrastructure and economic development projects across the country.

Familiarity is highest in British Columbia (71%) and Alberta (62%), compared with just 37% in Quebec. Canadians who are familiar with the initiative are also considerably more likely to assess its progress positively: 66% believe Carney is doing a good job getting these projects underway, compared with 21% among those unfamiliar with it.

However, views of the government’s progress on its broader commitments are more mixed.

Canadians give comparatively higher ratings to the government’s progress on trade diversification, getting natural resources to international markets and strengthening Canada’s military capacity.

Managing Canada-U.S. trade relations has seen the largest improvement since November 2025, with its average rating rising by 1.2 points to 5.9 out of 10.

This comes as Canada-U.S. trade tensions continue to shape Canadians’ purchasing intentions, highlighting the importance of trade relations beyond the political sphere.

Progress on domestic affordability receives considerably less favourable assessments. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians fall into the survey’s disappointed category when rating progress on housing affordability (63%) and addressing the cost-of-living crisis (64%).

Although assessments of both issues have improved slightly since November 2025, they remain among the government’s lowest-rated commitments.

Canadians’ evaluations of Carney’s leadership are therefore considerably more positive than their assessments of progress on the financial pressures affecting households.

This online survey was conducted from October 9 to 12, 2026, among 1,525 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited through our LEO online panel.

Results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error no greater than ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.