Federal Voting Intentions

April 1, 2024

Every month, we conduct a survey of Canadians to explore their views on the current government. This month, our survey was conducted between March 23 and 25, 2024.

Download the report to learn more.

Some of the key highlights of our survey about Canadian federal politics and the economy include…

  • Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party remains in the lead, 16 points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. If a federal election were to be held today, 42% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 26% would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party.
  • Similarly, 44% of Canadians believe that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, will win the upcoming elections, compared to 18% who think that Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party will prevail.
  • Canadians also think Pierre Poilievre is the leader who would make the best Prime Minister among the federal party leaders (29%), ahead of Justin Trudeau (17%) and Jagmeet Singh (17%).
  • Two-thirds of Canadians (66%) are dissatisfied with Trudeau’s government.
  • Three-quarters of Canadians (77%) believe it’s important that the leader of the party they vote for is someone they can relate to in some way. This sentiment is stronger among Conservative voters (86%) and Canadians aged 55 and older (84%).
  • In terms of party leader perceptions, 22% of Canadians feel that Pierre Poilievre is the leader who is most like them, compared to 14% who feel closer to Justin Trudeau and 13% who relate more to Jagmeet Singh. When it comes to the leader they feel least similar to, Pierre Poilievre (25%) and Justin Trudeau (24%) are virtually tied at the top, followed by Maxime Bernier (12%).
  • On a long flight, 21% of Canadians would prefer not to sit beside either Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre.

Methodology

This web survey was conducted from March 23 to 25, 2024, with 1,605 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of 1,605 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.45 %, 19 times out of 20.

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