As separatism in Alberta overshadowed the Conservative Party’s convention, support for the province’s governing United Conservative Party has shown signs of recovery, according to new Leger polling.
However, most residents remain concerned about the direction in which the province is heading. The latest data highlights a deeply polarised electorate, with healthcare and separatism emerging as the most pressing issues in Alberta politics today.
UCP strengthens its position in Alberta politics
According to the newest Leger Alberta report card, Albertans’ support for the United Conservatives is starting to rebound after trending downward since January 2025. However, more than 70 percent remain against separation from Canada.
If a provincial election were held today, the United Conservative Party would capture 50% of the vote among decided voters, compared to 37% for the Alberta NDP. The six-point increase for the governing party since October 2025 marks a reversal of a downward trend that had persisted for much of the past year.
The Alberta NDP maintains a solid base of support, while smaller parties remain marginal in the current electoral landscape. Support for the Alberta Party (4%) has increased as of January 2026.
Public outlook remains pessimistic despite electoral gains
Despite the UCP’s improved standing, most Albertans believe the province is headed in the wrong direction. Nearly six in ten Albertans believe the province is on the wrong track, while just over one-third feel it is headed in the right direction.
This perception varies sharply across demographics and political affiliations. Men and UCP supporters are far more likely to feel optimistic, while women and NDP voters express considerably higher levels of concern.
Separatism gains attention but raises concern
While a large majority of Albertans say the province should remain part of Canada (71%), separatism has become a more prominent political issue. Nearly one in five residents (18%) supports the idea of Alberta becoming an independent country, while a small minority (5%) favour joining the United States.
At the same time, concern about separatist movements is widespread. More than half (58%) report feeling somewhat or very concerned about these movements gaining influence. Even among UCP supporters, opinions are divided.
Health care dominates public concerns
important issue facing the province. More than a quarter of Albertans (27%) identify it as their top concern — a 10 per cent climb from October. Eleven per cent ranked provincial nationalism or separatism as most important, rising by 4 points. When first and second important issues are combined, health care dominates the issue landscape by a wide margin (43%), behind inflation/rising interest rates (20%), provincial nationalism/separatism (18%), cost of living issues such as economy (18%), and housing prices/affordability (15%).
Confidence in the health care system remains split. About half of residents say they are confident they will be able to access care when needed, while a nearly equal share say they are not. The issue resonates particularly strongly among women and NDP supporters, while UCP voters tend to express higher levels of confidence.
Government approval varies by policy area
Albertans’ assessment of the provincial government remains highly issue-specific. Approval ratings have improved in areas such as energy and pipelines, wildfire response, and taxation.
However, the government continues to face strong disapproval on issues tied to everyday affordability and social well-being, including health care, housing affordability, homelessness, poverty, and the opioid crisis. This uneven performance suggests that electoral support does not necessarily translate into broad satisfaction with government action.
Methodology
This online survey was conducted among 1,003 Canadian residents aged 18 or older, between January 23 and 26, 2026. Respondents were randomly recruited through LEO’s online panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, region, language and education to ensure a representative sample of the population of Alberta.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
