Recent outbreaks of violence in Mexico, following the death of cartel leader known as “El Mencho,” have dominated international headlines. Shootings, burned vehicles, cancelled flights, and cities under lockdown, particularly in Puerto Vallarta.
In this context, Leger surveyed Canadians to measure the real impact of these events on their travel intentions to Mexico. While concern is clearly present, 46% still plan to travel to Mexico as originally intended.
Nearly one-third of Canadians considering not traveling to Mexico
Among Canadians who currently have a trip planned to Mexico or who are considering travelling there within the next year, 31% now say they intend to choose a different destination.
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- 7% are considering cancelling a previously booked trip
- 2% have already cancelled their trip
However, 46% still plan to travel to Mexico as originally scheduled. Resilience is even more pronounced among Canadians who have travelled to Mexico in recent years. Among them, 64% are maintaining their travel plans.
High levels of concern, but experience matters
Safety remains the primary concern. 55% of Canadians rate their level of concern between 8 and 10 out of 10 when asked how worried they would be about travelling to Mexico right now. The national average concern score stands at 7.5 out of 10.
Among those who already have a trip planned or are considering going, the average concern level is lower, at 6.5 out of 10.
In a climate where Ottawa is urging caution and several airlines temporarily suspended flights to Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara before gradually resuming operations, perceptions remain strongly influenced by media coverage.
Mexico perceived as less safe than the United States
When asked to compare overall travel safety between Mexico and the United States, 44% of Canadians believe Mexico is less safe than its northern neighbour.
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- 17% believe Mexico is safer than the United States
- 21% consider both destinations to be about equally safe
Interestingly, Canadians who have travelled to Mexico recently are more likely to perceive the country as safer than the United States, at 28%.
Tourism reputation: Recovery expected, but not immediate
How long will it take for Mexico’s tourism reputation to recover?
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- 27% of Canadians believe it will take a few months
- 24% believe it will take about a year
- 22% say several years
- 11% believe the reputation may never fully recover
Optimism is stronger among Canadians who have travelled to Mexico recently. Among them, 39% expect recovery within a few months and 30% within a year.
Despite the images of violence following the military operation that led to the death of “El Mencho,” a significant share of Canadians believe a gradual return to normal is likely.
According to reporting from The Canadian Press, several stakeholders in the travel and tourism sector believe Canadians will continue visiting their preferred sun destinations, whether in Mexico or the Caribbean, despite crises affecting certain regions.
Methodology
This online survey was conducted from February 27 to March 2, 2026, among 1,659 Canadians aged 18 and older. Respondents were randomly recruited from Leger’s LEO online panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, and presence of children in the household to ensure representativeness of the Canadian population.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of ±2.47%, 19 times out of 20.
