Economic pressure, behavioral volatility and AI-assisted decision-making are fundamentally reshaping how, where and by whom purchase decisions are made.
This reality came through loud and clear at NRF Big Retail Show 2026. The takeaway was unmistakable: the traditional path-to-purchase models — linear, predictable and purely human-centric — no longer reflect how shopping decisions are actually made today, nor the reality retailers and CPG companies must now navigate.
A pressured consumer, more unstable decisions
In a prolonged environment of economic pressure, shopping behavior has become more volatile. Consumers compare more, arbitrate more frequently, switch brands or banners more easily, and expect clear, immediate value at every interaction.
For retailers and CPGs, this results in less linear, more fragmented and highly contextual journeys. Classic funnel models or “average” shopper journeys increasingly fail to explain decisions made under constraint, urgency or mission-based logic.
When AI becomes a decision-making actor
Layered onto this complexity is a major shift: AI is no longer just an optimization tool — it is becoming an active participant in the path to purchase.
AI agents are now searching, filtering, comparing and recommending products before the human shopper is fully involved. An increasing share of decisions is therefore shaped upstream of any direct interaction with the brand, product or store.
For retailers and CPGs, the implications are tangible:
- product visibility now depends as much on machine relevance as on human appeal;
- final shopper decisions often validate options already pre-selected by AI;
- not being “chosen” by the agent can mean not being considered at all.
We are moving from a pure B2C model toward a B2C reality augmented by AI, where humans and machines co-construct decisions.
The “what” is no longer enough — the “how” becomes strategic
Another strong NRF message: performance is no longer driven solely by what you sell, but by how the offer is presented, understood and experienced.
For retailers, merchandising, assortment clarity, journey fluidity and omnichannel coherence are now as strategic as the product itself.
For CPGs, this means thinking beyond the product: how is it discovered, compared and interpreted in increasingly fast, filtered and AI-assisted shopping contexts?
Even in convenience-driven environments, experience — simple, intuitive and frictionless — has become a key differentiator.
Why path-to-purchase understanding must evolve
This raises a critical question for retail and CPG leaders:
Can we still make sound strategic decisions using path-to-purchase models designed for a more stable, pre-AI world?
Traditional approaches struggle to fully capture:
- the real influence of AI on decisions,
- accelerated and fragmented journeys,
- the interaction between economic pressure, emotion and automation.
Today, tracking journeys is no longer enough.
Shopper insights must evolve from tracking journeys to decoding decisions
Only by understanding why an option is selected — by the human, by the AI, or by both — can organizations meaningfully inform assortment, merchandising, experience and investment choices.
Anticipating the next generation of shopper understanding
At Léger, the ongoing transformation of retail and shopper behavior has fueled continuous reflection on how the path to purchase should be studied, interpreted and activated.
In a world shaped by economic pressure, volatility and AI, evolving traditional analytical frameworks is essential to better reflect today’s — and tomorrow’s — decision-making reality.
This forward-looking, innovation-driven posture is designed to help retailers and CPGs make more informed decisions as the rules of the game continue to shift.
Conclusion: understanding better to protect — and grow — market share
The path to purchase has never been more strategic. Under the combined effects of economic pressure, behavioral volatility and AI, it is evolving faster than the models used to analyze it.
For retailers and CPG companies, the challenge is clear: understanding how decisions are truly made today is no longer theoretical — it is essential to staying relevant, protecting market share and enabling growth.
In an environment where choices are increasingly filtered and accelerated, relying on outdated interpretations of the shopper journey creates strategic misalignment.
Conversely, organizations that update their understanding of decision-making, integrate AI alongside human behavior, and align strategy, experience and execution with this new reality will gain a lasting competitive edge.
Understanding the path to purchase today is how you stay — and grow — tomorrow.
