From February 21 to 23, 2025, we surveyed Ontarians on their provincial politics.
Highlights of our survey include…
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Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (47%) is leading by 19 points, ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party (28%), Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP (17%), and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party (6%).
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Six out of ten Ontarians (60%) think that Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party will win the election, while only 13% think that Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party will win.
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A quarter of Ontarians (27%) watched the televised leaders’ debate that was held on February 17. Liberal voters (37%) are more likely to have watched the debate.
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Among respondents who watched the televised debate, 31% believe Doug Ford performed best, followed by Bonnie Crombie at 20%, Marit Stiles at 12%, and Mike Schreiner at 5%.
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Party platforms and ideas (38%), the government’s track record (32%), and U.S. tariffs/Trump (26%) are the key factors influencing Ontarians’ votes. Liberal voters are more likely to have been swayed by party platforms and ideas (51%) and the government’s record (44%), while Progressive Conservative voters are more likely to have been influenced by U.S. tariffs and Trump (38%).
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from February 21 to February 23, 2025, with 1,005 Ontarians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±3.09%, (19 times out of 20) for the Canadian sample.
