Provincial Politics in Ontario – May 18, 2022

May 18, 2022

From May 13-15, 2022, Leger surveyed eligible Ontario voters about provincial politics in Ontario to understand their voting intentions, impressions of the provincial party leaders, engagement with the 2022 provincial election campaign, reactions to campaign promises and more.


  • The top campaign promises they support/think would be good for Ontario are:
    • A new government program providing free to low-cost dental care depending on family income (72%)
    • Provincial government regulation of gasoline prices (62%)
    • Removing tolls on publicly-owned highways (56%)
    • Reducing all public transit fares, including GO train, to $1 a ride for the next 2 years (54%)
  • When asked how confident they are that the parties will follow through and implement the promises they are making during this campaign:
    • 36% are confident in Andrea Horwath and the NDP
    • 33% are confident in Doug Ford and the PCs
    • 30% are confident in Steven Del Duca and the Liberals
    • 24% are confident in Mike Schreiner and the Green Party
  • If a provincial election were held today, 37% of decided voters would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, 28% would vote for the Ontario Liberal Party and 23% would vote for the Ontario New Democratic Party.
  • 46% of decided voters indicate that they may change their minds about who to vote for prior to election day.

Provincial Voting Intentions Ontario - May 18, 2022


A web survey was conducted among 1,000 Ontario residents, 18 years of age or older, who are eligible to vote in Ontario, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

The data was collected from May 13 to 15, 2022 (prior to the televised leader debate).

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,000 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The results were weighted according to gender and age within Ontario regions, as well as by education and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the population. 

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