As Quebec’s October 5 election approaches, the regional picture shows a much more complex race than the province-wide numbers suggest. The Parti Québécois remains ahead across Quebec, but several key regions could come down to two-way or even three-way contests.
Key Highlights
- A three-way race is emerging in the Quebec City region. In the CMA, the PQ and PCQ are tied at 30%, ahead of the CAQ at 21%.
- In the 450, the PQ and CAQ are neck and neck, with 31% and 28% of voting intentions, respectively.
- The QLP holds a commanding lead on the Island of Montreal at 40%, but falls to 14% in the rest of Quebec.
- Québec solidaire trails in most regions, with support generally ranging from 4% to 9% outside the Island of Montreal.
Quebec City Is Shaping Up to Be a Major Battleground
The Quebec City region could be one of the most competitive areas of the campaign. In the Capitale-Nationale region, the PQ stands at 30% of voting intentions, compared with 29% for the PCQ and 21% for the CAQ.
The balance of support also varies considerably within the region. Around Quebec City, the PCQ leads with 35%, while in Chaudière-Appalaches it reaches 36%. With the CAQ still very much in the race, the region remains highly competitive and far from settled.
The QLP Dominates Montreal, but Struggles Elsewhere
The QLP maintains a strong lead on the Island of Montreal, where it receives 40% of voting intentions. Its support drops quickly outside the island, however, falling to 23% in the 450 and just 14% in the rest of Quebec.
Meanwhile, the PQ remains well positioned in several regions, while the CAQ is still strong enough to challenge it in key parts of the province. At this stage of the campaign, nothing is settled, and the election could ultimately be won region by region.
Methodology
These results are based on 11 online surveys conducted by Leger between June 12 and August 24, 2026, among 11,305 Quebec residents aged 18 or older who are eligible to vote.
Respondents were randomly recruited from Leger’s LEO online panel and could complete the survey in English or French. The data were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, presence of children in the household, and the results of the August 11, 2026 survey to ensure a representative and current sample of the Quebec population.
The regional voting intentions presented in this article are based on decided voters. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 11,305 respondents would have a margin of error of no more than ±0.92%, 19 times out of 20.
To cite these results: Leger survey/Le Journal/TVA.
