Quebec Voting Intentions: The Race Is Far From Over

With Quebec’s provincial election scheduled for October 5, 2026, according to Élections Québec, the Parti Québécois remains ahead in voting intentions. But party standings only tell part of the story. Fewer than half of decided voters say their choice is final, suggesting that a significant share of the electorate could still change its mind before election day.

• Only 48% of voters say their choice is final, compared with 49% who could still switch parties.
• Voters aged 18 to 34 are even more open to changing their minds, with just 36% saying their choice is final.
• The PQ leads with 30% of voting intentions and maintains a significant advantage among Francophones, but the race remains open.

A few months after Christine Fréchette took over as Premier, the CAQ’s rebound appears to have levelled off. In May, our poll highlighted a Fréchette effect, as the CAQ quickly regained ground. The party now stands at 20% of voting intentions, compared with 21% in June.

That does not necessarily mean voters have made up their minds about Christine Fréchette. Satisfaction with her government currently stands at 40%.

Her challenge, however, remains separating herself from the CAQ’s record. Only 30% of Quebecers associate her with renewal within the party, while 46% see her more as a continuation of the previous government. With 59% dissatisfied with the CAQ’s eight years in power, Christine Fréchette still appears to be in an evaluation period with part of the electorate.

The Quebec Liberal Party had made rapid gains in recent months, reaching as high as 33% of voting intentions earlier this year. It now stands at 24%, down three points since June.

Indicators related to Charles Milliard tell a similar story. He is selected by 12% of Quebecers as the leader who would make the best Premier and by 13% as the leader who most represents change. For now, the momentum that accompanied his arrival does not appear to have translated into a lasting advantage.

As election day approaches, voting intentions matter, but vote certainty matters almost as much. With only 48% of voters saying their choice is final, parties’ ability to hold onto their current supporters and persuade voters who remain open to changing their minds could make all the difference.

This study is based on an online survey of 998 Quebec residents aged 18 and older who are eligible to vote, conducted from August 7 to 9, 2026, using the LEO panel. Results were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and the presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of Quebec’s population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a maximum margin of error of ±3.10%, 19 times out of 20.

To cite these survey results, please use the following attribution: Léger/Le Journal/TVA.