As the 2024 BC provincial election draws near, Leger plans to repeatedly administer this survey on a weekly basis to provide up-to-date polling and insights related to the upcoming election. This survey was conducted from October 14 to 15, 2024.
Key Insights
- The BC NDP (46%) continues to hold the lead in voting intention among decided voters over The Conservative Party of BC (42%) with a slightly narrower 4-point lead from last week and despite Furstenau’s debate performance, the Greens have held steady at 9%.
- The NDP has picked up support in the Metro Vancouver area (42% to 49%) in the past three weeks, and the Conservatives have continued their gains in areas of BC outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island (to 49%).
- Voters 55+ continue to support the NDP over the Conservative Party of BC by a 13 pt. margin (51% to 37%) while Conservative support is highest among males (47%) and 35-54’s (47%). While Conservative support dropped substantially last week among youth and women, it has recovered slightly this week.
- A considerable number (37%) of BC residents have already voted with heavy turnout from the 55+ group (49%) and lower numbers among 35-54 (33%) and 18-34 (23%)–with early results favouring the BC NDP.
- Eby edged out Rustad as the winner of the leader’s debate (27% to 25%) with Furstenau a distant third (14%)–and a substantial 34% not having an opinion.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from October 14 to 15, 2024, with 1,017 British Columbians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of 1,017 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.1 %, 19 times out of 20.
