From September 6 to 8, 2024, we surveyed Canadians to learn their opinions and perceptions of the end of the NDP-Liberal agreement.
Key highlights of our survey include…
- Federal voting intentions remain stable after the announcement of the end of the agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. The Conservative Party of Canada maintains its lead with 45% of the vote nationally, followed by the Liberal Party at 25% and the NDP at 15%.
- Half of Canadians (47%) would want a federal election to be called given the current situation, while 34% would not, and 19% don’t know. Conservative voters (80%) are more likely to want an election to be called.
- Around one-third of Canadians (38%) would like the next election to be this fall, while the same proportion (37%) would like the election in October 2025, as planned. Among Canadians who want a federal election to be called, 69% would like to have it this fall.
- Two out of three Canadians (65%) are not confident in Justin Trudeau’s leadership in continuing to govern Canada without the support of the NDP, with 40% not being confident at all.
- More than half of Canadians (54%) believe that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada will win the next federal election, while only 15% think that Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party of Canada will win. The confidence of Conservative voters is stronger than that of Liberal voters. Specifically, 89% of Conservative voters believe their party will win the next election, compared to 47% of Liberal voters who feel the same about their party.
Methodology
This web survey was conducted from September 6 to September 8, 2024, with 1,521 Canadians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than ±2.51%, (19 times out of 20) for the Canadian sample.
