Our latest federal survey shows that the Liberals remain in a strong national position, although their lead has softened slightly since June. Canadians also continue to view Mark Carney and his government more positively than negatively. The clearest contrast, however, emerges when Canadians are asked which leader they trust on major policy files.
Key Highlights
- Among decided voters, 46% support the Liberals, 34% support the Conservatives and 8% support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois stands at 6%, the Greens at 4% and other parties at 2%.
- 54% of Canadians are satisfied with the federal government, 55% approve of Carney’s performance and 54% believe the country is heading in the right direction.
- Carney leads Poilievre on every policy comparison presented in the survey, with trust gaps ranging from 9 to 14 percentage points.
The Liberal Lead Is Still Clear
Liberal support has declined by two points since our June federal polling, while Conservative support is unchanged. The NDP has gained two points, but remains well behind the two leading parties. This points to a modest adjustment in the race rather than a significant change in direction.
The regional picture also remains familiar. The Liberals perform best in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, while the Conservatives continue to lead in Alberta and receive stronger support in rural communities.
The NDP’s support is more concentrated. It reaches 16% among Canadians aged 18 to 34 and in British Columbia, compared with 3% among those aged 55 and older. The party has made some progress with younger voters, but those gains are not yet broad enough to reshape the national race.
Carney’s Ratings Have Eased From Their Spring High
Government satisfaction has declined by three points since June, while Carney’s approval has fallen by two points. Neither change is statistically significant, and both measures remain positive overall.
The results vary more clearly by age. Among Canadians aged 55 and older, 61% approve of Carney’s performance and 59% believe the country is moving in the right direction. Canadians aged 35 to 54 are more critical. In this group, 46% approve of Carney, while an equal proportion disapprove, and 55% believe Canada is on the wrong track.
This difference is important because middle-aged Canadians often face several pressures at once, including housing costs, household expenses and economic uncertainty. Their more divided assessment suggests that maintaining positive national ratings will depend on whether they see progress on the issues affecting their daily lives.
The Same Policy Positions Draw More Trust When Associated With Carney
For the leader comparison, respondents were randomly divided into two groups. Both groups were shown the same policy positions, but one was asked whether it trusted Carney and the other whether it trusted Poilievre. The wording remained the same, allowing us to isolate the trust Canadians place in each leader.
Carney’s strongest result is on reducing immigration to ease pressure on health care and housing, where 69% trust him, compared with 56% for Poilievre. He also leads on accelerating major infrastructure and energy projects, 64% to 51%, and on increasing energy production and building new pipelines, 62% to 51%.
The energy results are notable in light of our recent survey on energy expansion, which found broad support for developing the sector, provided that environmental, economic and Indigenous conditions are considered.
Carney’s largest advantage is on increasing military spending and strengthening Canada’s Arctic presence, where he leads 60% to 46%. This comes as Arctic sovereignty and security remain central to Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy.
The closest comparison is on growing the energy sector while meeting climate commitments, where Carney leads 56% to 47%. Both leaders receive their lowest trust scores on negotiating a trade deal with the United States that could require Canadian concessions. Carney still leads on that question, 50% to 38%, but the results show how sensitive the trade file remains. For more context on how Canadians and Americans view the relationship, read Neighbours, Not Twins: How Canadians and Americans See Each Other.
Overall, the vote remains relatively stable, but Carney’s advantage extends beyond party support. When Canadians are presented with the same policy objective, they consistently place more trust in him to deliver it. Closing that credibility gap may be just as important for Poilievre as narrowing the Liberal lead.
Methodology
This study is based on an online survey of 1,514 Canadian residents aged 18 and older, conducted from August 1 to 3, 2026, using our LEO online panel. Respondents could complete the survey in English or French. Results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and the presence of children in the household to reflect the Canadian population.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample, but for comparison, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
