From February 7 to 10, 2025, we surveyed Canadians on federal politics.
Highlights of our survey include…
- The gap between the Conservative and Liberal leads is narrowing as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is currently leading by 9 points, compared to an 18-point lead over the Liberal Party at the last measure. If a federal election were held today, 40% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 31% would vote for the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party has seen a significant increase of 6 percentage points since the last measurement, while the Conservatives have experienced a decrease of 3 points.
- Among potential successors to Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney still emerges as the clear frontrunner, now garnering 37% support. Chrystia Freeland follows with 12%, while Karina Gould trails with 3%. Carney’s appeal is particularly strong among Liberal voters, with 68% backing his leadership.
- With Mark Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 37% (+6), while Conservative support would drop to 37%, suggesting Carney could attract voters and improve the party’s electoral chances. On the other hand, If Chrystia Freeland led the Liberals, support would decline to 28% (-3), giving the Conservatives a stronger lead at 39%.
- Pierre Poilievre (22%) and Mark Carney (20%) are the most trusted in managing U.S.-Canada relations, with Carney leading among Liberal voters (44%). Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford rank lower at 9%. Chrystia Freeland also ranks lower at 6%, followed by Jagmeet Singh at 5%.
Methodology
The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from February 7 to 10, 2025, with a representative sample of 1,590 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel.
The data was statistically weighted according to 2021 Canadian Census figures.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,590 would have a margin of error of +/- 2.46%, 19 times out of 20.
