During the election campaign, we conduct a weekly survey of Canadians to track their voting intentions and gather their views on key federal political issues.
Some of the key highlights of our survey about Canadian Politics…
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party continues to lead in voting intentions. Currently, 43% of Canadians say they would vote for the Liberal Party if the election were held today, compared to 39% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. Voting intentions remain stable, even after last week’s leaders’ debates.
Mark Carney is solidifying his position as the next Prime Minister of Canada. Regardless of their political allegiance, 55% of Canadians believe the Liberal Party will form the next government, compared to 25% who think it will be Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party.
Pierre Poilievre (39%) and Mark Carney (38%) are virtually tied as the perceived winner of the English debate. Yves-François Blanchet (31%) is seen as the winner of the French debate, followed by Mark Carney (27%) and Pierre Poilievre (22%). More than a third of respondents who watched the debate in French (36%) think Carney performed better than expected.
Methodology
The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from April 17 to April 21, 2025 with a representative sample of 1,603 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel.
The data was statistically weighted according to 2021 Canadian Census figures.
A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,603 would have a margin of error of +/- 2.45%, 19 times out of 20.
