The 2021 Federal Election: The Conservatives Are in the Lead – August 31, 2021

The first half of this Fall’s Federal Election campaign is almost complete.

Leger polled Canadians on their voting intentions and their outlook for this Election. 

We are proud to have presented the most accurate poll results for the 2019 Canadian federal election, the 2020 British Columbia provincial election and the 2020 New Brunswick provincial election.

We look forward to providing relevant data about this important moment for Canada.

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DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT AT THE END OF THIS ARTICLE.


FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS

“The early campaign narrative of “Why call an election now since you are going to win anyway?” is now the past. As of today, this race could go either way.

The Conservatives need significantly more votes than the Liberals, if they wish to form government. (Remember, they lost the 2019 election with 1% more votes.) But it’s possible: not only are they are making a breakthrough in Atlantic Canada, but they also have at least 20% of the share of vote in Quebec and are within striking distance of the Liberals in Ontario. Another concern for the incumbent liberals is the strength of the NDP in Ontario and BC, which could cost them seats in both provinces.” – Christian Bourque, Executive Vice-President

Federal Voting Intentions

2021 FEDERAL ELECTION

  • In the past week, 41% of Canadians say their opinion of Justin Trudeau has deteriorated, while 23% say their opinions of Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh have improved
  • 56% of Canadians are dissatisfied with the Government of Canada, led by Justin Trudeau – an increase of 5 percentage points *. 
  • When Canadians are asked which leader would make Canada’s best Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh tie at 23%, but Erin O’Toole is a close second (21%). 
  • When Canadians are asked who will win the next Federal Election and form the next government: 
    • 39% say the Liberal Party (8 percentage points *) 
    • 28% say the Conservative Party (+10 percentage points *) 
    • 7% say the New Democratic Party (1 percentage point *) 

* Since our last survey, dated August 17, 2021.

Opinion on Party Leaders

Our comprehensive poll also covers important election campaign issues, such as accessibility to health care, the affordability of housing, and gun control. 


METHODOLOGY

This web survey was conducted from August 27, 2021 to August 30, 2021 with 2,005 Canadians and 1,004 Americans, 18 years of age or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

For comparison, a probability sample of 2,005 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.18%, 19 times out of 20, while a probability sample of 1,004 would have a margin of error of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20. 

THIS REPORT CONTAINS THE RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS AND MORE!

  • If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote?
  • In the past week, has your opinion of the following leaders improved, remained stable or worsened?
  • Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau?
  • In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?
  • Who do you think will win the next federal election and form the next government?

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